Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz
Model pick: Rapid Wien (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rapid Wien | Sturm Graz |
|---|
| League position | #1 (9 pts) | #3 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.5 / 0.0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.6 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Rapid Wien shown at home, Sturm Graz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rapid Wien — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Sturm Graz — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rapid Wien (home) | Sturm Graz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (4.5 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Seedy Jatta (1) |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Rapid Wien or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Rapid Wien clean sheet | 24% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rapid Wien is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Rapid Wien are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz — FAQ
Who will win Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model makes Rapid Wien the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Rapid Wien 39%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 35%.
Will both teams score in Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Rapid Wien and 1.41 for Sturm Graz — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Rapid Wien or draw is 58%.