Raufoss vs Stabæk Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Raufoss vs Stabæk
Model pick: Stabæk (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.73
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Raufoss | Stabæk |
|---|
| League position | #14 (13 pts) | #4 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 3.4 / 2.2 |
*Raufoss shown at home, Stabæk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Raufoss — last 5
WLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Stabæk — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Raufoss (home) | Stabæk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-3 in 7 (1.7 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-3-2 in 8 (2.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 65% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Raufoss or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Stabæk or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Raufoss clean sheet | 18% |
| Stabæk clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Stabæk is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Stabæk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Raufoss vs Stabæk — FAQ
Who will win Raufoss vs Stabæk?
Our statistical model makes Stabæk the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Raufoss 24%, draw 22%, Stabæk 53%.
Will both teams score in Raufoss vs Stabæk?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Raufoss vs Stabæk?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Raufoss and 1.73 for Stabæk — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Raufoss vs Stabæk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Raufoss or draw is 56%.