Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction & Preview
LaLiga · Aug 20, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LALIGA
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
Model pick: Rayo Vallecano (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rayo Vallecano | Alaves |
|---|
| League position | #5 (13 pts) | #3 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 0.7 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Rayo Vallecano shown at home, Alaves shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Alaves — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rayo Vallecano (home) | Alaves (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.7 / 0.7 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% |
LaLiga — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these LaLiga averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Alaves or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 39% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rayo Vallecano is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Rayo Vallecano are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves — FAQ
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our statistical model makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 44%, draw 30%, Alaves 26%.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Rayo Vallecano and 0.94 for Alaves — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Rayo Vallecano or draw is 74%.