Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli Prediction & Preview
V AFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
V AFG (BULGARIA)
Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli
Model pick: Septemvri Simitli (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 3.59
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Razlog | Septemvri Simitli |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Razlog shown at home, Septemvri Simitli shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Razlog — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Septemvri Simitli — last 5
WWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Razlog (home) | Septemvri Simitli (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
V AFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.17
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these V AFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 3.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (7%) |
| Double chance — Razlog or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Septemvri Simitli or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Razlog clean sheet | 3% |
| Septemvri Simitli clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Septemvri Simitli is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Septemvri Simitli edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli — FAQ
Who will win Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli?
Our statistical model makes Septemvri Simitli the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Razlog 16%, draw 16%, Septemvri Simitli 68%.
Will both teams score in Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Razlog and 3.59 for Septemvri Simitli — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Razlog vs Septemvri Simitli?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (7%). Double chance for Razlog or draw is 27%.