Örebro vs Östersunds FK Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Örebro vs Östersunds FK
Model pick: Örebro (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Örebro | Östersunds FK |
|---|
| League position | #15 (20 pts) | #4 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Örebro shown at home, Östersunds FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Örebro — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Östersunds FK — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Örebro (home) | Östersunds FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-5-3 in 11 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 44% |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Örebro or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Östersunds FK or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Örebro clean sheet | 34% |
| Östersunds FK clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Örebro is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Örebro are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Örebro vs Östersunds FK — FAQ
Who will win Örebro vs Östersunds FK?
Our statistical model makes Örebro the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Örebro 38%, draw 27%, Östersunds FK 35%.
Will both teams score in Örebro vs Östersunds FK?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Örebro vs Östersunds FK?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Örebro and 1.08 for Östersunds FK — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Örebro vs Östersunds FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Örebro or draw is 72%.