Örebro vs Värnamo Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 03, 2026 · kickoff 17:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Örebro vs Värnamo
Model pick: Örebro (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Örebro | Värnamo |
|---|
| League position | #14 (15 pts) | #15 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 2.6 |
*Örebro shown at home, Värnamo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Örebro — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Värnamo — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Örebro (home) | Värnamo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-3 in 8 (0.8 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-0-7 in 8 (0.9 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Axel Bjornstrom (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Örebro or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Örebro clean sheet | 31% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Örebro is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Örebro are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Örebro vs Värnamo — FAQ
Who will win Örebro vs Värnamo?
Our statistical model makes Örebro the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Örebro 41%, draw 28%, Värnamo 31%.
Will both teams score in Örebro vs Värnamo?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Örebro vs Värnamo?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Örebro and 1.18 for Värnamo — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Örebro vs Värnamo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Örebro or draw is 65%.