Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Model pick: Recoleta (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.23 – 1.05
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Recoleta | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|
| League position | #7 (87 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Recoleta shown at home, Sportivo San Lorenzo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Recoleta — last 5
DWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
DDDDD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Recoleta (home) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Allan Wlk (9) | – |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.23 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Recoleta or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Recoleta clean sheet | 35% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Recoleta is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Recoleta are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo — FAQ
Who will win Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Our statistical model makes Recoleta the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Recoleta 60%, draw 22%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 19%.
Will both teams score in Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Expected goals are 2.23 for Recoleta and 1.05 for Sportivo San Lorenzo — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Recoleta vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Recoleta or draw is 83%.