Reggiana vs Vado Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Reggiana vs Vado
Model pick: Draw (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.54 – 0.69
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 37%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Reggiana | Vado |
|---|
| League position | #18 (37 pts) | #1 (78 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 32% | 59% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Reggiana shown at home, Vado shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Reggiana — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Vado — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Reggiana (home) | Vado (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-7-6 in 19 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 10-4-3 in 17 (1.6 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 67% |
| Top scorer | Cedric Gondo (1) | – |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.54 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (29%) |
| Double chance — Reggiana or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Vado or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 59% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Reggiana clean sheet | 50% |
| Vado clean sheet | 58% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Reggiana vs Vado — FAQ
Who will win Reggiana vs Vado?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Reggiana 26%, draw 40%, Vado 34%.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Vado?
The model gives a 37% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Reggiana vs Vado?
Expected goals are 0.54 for Reggiana and 0.69 for Vado — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Reggiana vs Vado?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (29%). Double chance for Reggiana or draw is 66%.