Reims vs Guingamp Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Reims vs Guingamp
Model pick: Reims (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Reims | Guingamp |
|---|
| League position | #2 (8 pts) | #11 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Reims shown at home, Guingamp shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Reims — last 5
WDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Guingamp — last 5
DLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Reims (home) | Guingamp (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Keito Nakamura (14) | Louis Mafouta (15) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Reims or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Guingamp or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Reims clean sheet | 36% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Reims is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Reims are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Reims vs Guingamp — FAQ
Who will win Reims vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model makes Reims the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Reims 54%, draw 24%, Guingamp 22%.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Guingamp?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Reims vs Guingamp?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Reims and 1.01 for Guingamp — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Reims vs Guingamp?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Reims or draw is 80%.