Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz
Model pick: Olimpia Grudziądz (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rekord Bielsko-Biała | Olimpia Grudziądz |
|---|
| League position | #5 (7 pts) | #12 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Rekord Bielsko-Biała shown at home, Olimpia Grudziądz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rekord Bielsko-Biała — last 5
DWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Grudziądz — last 5
LDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rekord Bielsko-Biała (home) | Olimpia Grudziądz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Grudziądz or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Rekord Bielsko-Biała clean sheet | 25% |
| Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia Grudziądz is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Olimpia Grudziądz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz — FAQ
Who will win Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia Grudziądz the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Rekord Bielsko-Biała 36%, draw 26%, Olimpia Grudziądz 37%.
Will both teams score in Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Rekord Bielsko-Biała and 1.4 for Olimpia Grudziądz — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw is 62%.