Resistencia vs Guaireña Prediction & Preview
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION INTERMEDIA (PARAGUAY)
Resistencia vs Guaireña
Model pick: Resistencia (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 0.38
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 34%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Resistencia | Guaireña |
|---|
| League position | #6 (29 pts) | #11 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Resistencia shown at home, Guaireña shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Resistencia — last 5
WDWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Guaireña — last 5
DLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Resistencia (home) | Guaireña (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-2 in 10 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% |
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.59
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Division Intermedia (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 0.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Resistencia or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Guaireña or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 58% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Resistencia clean sheet | 68% |
| Guaireña clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Resistencia is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Resistencia are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Resistencia vs Guaireña — FAQ
Who will win Resistencia vs Guaireña?
Our statistical model makes Resistencia the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Resistencia 41%, draw 40%, Guaireña 19%.
Will both teams score in Resistencia vs Guaireña?
The model gives a 34% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Resistencia vs Guaireña?
Expected goals are 0.77 for Resistencia and 0.38 for Guaireña — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Resistencia vs Guaireña?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for Resistencia or draw is 83%.