Örgryte vs Hammarby Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Örgryte vs Hammarby
Model pick: Hammarby (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 2.2
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Örgryte | Hammarby |
|---|
| League position | #15 (14 pts) | #2 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
*Örgryte shown at home, Hammarby shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Örgryte — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Hammarby — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Örgryte (home) | Hammarby (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-5-3 in 9 (1.7 / 1.9 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 2.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Örgryte or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — Hammarby or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Örgryte clean sheet | 11% |
| Hammarby clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hammarby is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Hammarby edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Örgryte vs Hammarby — FAQ
Who will win Örgryte vs Hammarby?
Our statistical model makes Hammarby the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Örgryte 12%, draw 18%, Hammarby 70%.
Will both teams score in Örgryte vs Hammarby?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Örgryte vs Hammarby?
Expected goals are 0.95 for Örgryte and 2.2 for Hammarby — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Örgryte vs Hammarby?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for Örgryte or draw is 34%.