Rhode Island vs Louisville City Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Rhode Island vs Louisville City
Model pick: Rhode Island (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rhode Island | Louisville City |
|---|
| League position | #6 (28 pts) | #5 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Rhode Island shown at home, Louisville City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rhode Island — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Louisville City — last 5
DWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rhode Island (home) | Louisville City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | 4-2-5 in 11 (2.0 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Rhode Island or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Louisville City or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Rhode Island clean sheet | 43% |
| Louisville City clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rhode Island is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Rhode Island are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Rhode Island vs Louisville City — FAQ
Who will win Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
Our statistical model makes Rhode Island the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Rhode Island 52%, draw 26%, Louisville City 21%.
Will both teams score in Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Rhode Island and 0.84 for Louisville City — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rhode Island vs Louisville City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Rhode Island or draw is 80%.