Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay
Model pick: Rhode Island (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.7
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rhode Island | Monterey Bay |
|---|
| League position | #6 (25 pts) | #12 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Rhode Island shown at home, Monterey Bay shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rhode Island — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Monterey Bay — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rhode Island (home) | Monterey Bay (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-1 in 9 (1.7 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-3-8 in 11 (0.8 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 40% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Rhode Island or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Monterey Bay or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Rhode Island clean sheet | 50% |
| Monterey Bay clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rhode Island is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Rhode Island are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay — FAQ
Who will win Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
Our statistical model makes Rhode Island the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Rhode Island 60%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 17%.
Will both teams score in Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Rhode Island and 0.7 for Monterey Bay — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rhode Island vs Monterey Bay?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Rhode Island or draw is 82%.