Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison
Model pick: Forward Madison (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.72 – 2.15
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Richmond Kickers | Forward Madison |
|---|
| League position | #16 (19 pts) | #3 (40 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Richmond Kickers shown at home, Forward Madison shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Richmond Kickers — last 5
LWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 20% of home games go over 2.5.
Forward Madison — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Richmond Kickers (home) | Forward Madison (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) | 5-1-5 in 11 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 67% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.72 vs 2.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Richmond Kickers or draw (1X) | 30% |
| Double chance — Forward Madison or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Richmond Kickers clean sheet | 12% |
| Forward Madison clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Forward Madison is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Despite playing away, Forward Madison edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison — FAQ
Who will win Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison?
Our statistical model makes Forward Madison the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Richmond Kickers 14%, draw 21%, Forward Madison 66%.
Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison?
Expected goals are 0.72 for Richmond Kickers and 2.15 for Forward Madison — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Richmond Kickers or draw is 30%.