Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine
Model pick: Portland Hearts of Pine (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
45%
Portland Hearts of Pine
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.95
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Richmond Kickers | Portland Hearts of Pine |
|---|
| League position | #16 (18 pts) | #12 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Richmond Kickers shown at home, Portland Hearts of Pine shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Richmond Kickers — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Portland Hearts of Pine — last 5
DDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Richmond Kickers (home) | Portland Hearts of Pine (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (1.5 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 80% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 57%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Richmond Kickers or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Portland Hearts of Pine or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Richmond Kickers clean sheet | 14% |
| Portland Hearts of Pine clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Portland Hearts of Pine is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Portland Hearts of Pine edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine — FAQ
Who will win Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
Our statistical model makes Portland Hearts of Pine the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Richmond Kickers 32%, draw 24%, Portland Hearts of Pine 45%.
Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Richmond Kickers and 1.95 for Portland Hearts of Pine — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Richmond Kickers vs Portland Hearts of Pine?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Richmond Kickers or draw is 53%.