Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Ried vs Grazer AK
Model pick: Ried (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ried | Grazer AK |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Ried shown at home, Grazer AK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ried — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Grazer AK — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ried (home) | Grazer AK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ried or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Grazer AK or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Ried clean sheet | 30% |
| Grazer AK clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ried is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Ried are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ried vs Grazer AK — FAQ
Who will win Ried vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model makes Ried the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Ried 38%, draw 28%, Grazer AK 34%.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Grazer AK?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ried vs Grazer AK?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Ried and 1.21 for Grazer AK — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ried vs Grazer AK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ried or draw is 66%.