Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Rijeka vs Istra 1961
Model pick: Rijeka (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.73 – 0.75
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rijeka | Istra 1961 |
|---|
| League position | #7 (3 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.8 / 1.8 |
*Rijeka shown at home, Istra 1961 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rijeka — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Istra 1961 — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rijeka (home) | Istra 1961 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% |
| Top scorer | – | Smail Prevljak (11) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.73 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Rijeka or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Istra 1961 or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Rijeka clean sheet | 47% |
| Istra 1961 clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rijeka is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Rijeka are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Rijeka vs Istra 1961 — FAQ
Who will win Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
Our statistical model makes Rijeka the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Rijeka 57%, draw 25%, Istra 1961 18%.
Will both teams score in Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
Expected goals are 1.73 for Rijeka and 0.75 for Istra 1961 — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rijeka vs Istra 1961?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Rijeka or draw is 84%.