Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo Prediction & Preview
V AFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
V AFG (BULGARIA)
Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo
Model pick: Ustrem Donchevo (68%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.53 – 2.03
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Riltzi | Ustrem Donchevo |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 4.0 |
*Riltzi shown at home, Ustrem Donchevo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Riltzi — last 5
LW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Ustrem Donchevo — last 5
LLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Riltzi (home) | Ustrem Donchevo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
V AFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.17
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these V AFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.53 vs 2.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (16%) |
| Double chance — Riltzi or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Ustrem Donchevo or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Riltzi clean sheet | 13% |
| Ustrem Donchevo clean sheet | 59% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ustrem Donchevo is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Ustrem Donchevo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo — FAQ
Who will win Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Our statistical model makes Ustrem Donchevo the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Riltzi 11%, draw 21%, Ustrem Donchevo 68%.
Will both teams score in Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Expected goals are 0.53 for Riltzi and 2.03 for Ustrem Donchevo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Riltzi vs Ustrem Donchevo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (16%). Double chance for Riltzi or draw is 27%.