Roda JC vs Helmond Sport Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Roda JC vs Helmond Sport
Model pick: Roda JC (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Roda JC | Helmond Sport |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Roda JC shown at home, Helmond Sport shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Roda JC — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Helmond Sport — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Roda JC (home) | Helmond Sport (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Roda JC or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Helmond Sport or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Roda JC clean sheet | 40% |
| Helmond Sport clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Roda JC is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Roda JC are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Roda JC vs Helmond Sport — FAQ
Who will win Roda JC vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model makes Roda JC the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Roda JC 52%, draw 26%, Helmond Sport 22%.
Will both teams score in Roda JC vs Helmond Sport?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Roda JC vs Helmond Sport?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Roda JC and 0.92 for Helmond Sport — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Roda JC vs Helmond Sport?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Roda JC or draw is 79%.