Rodez vs Pau Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Rodez vs Pau
Model pick: Rodez (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.22
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rodez | Pau |
|---|
| League position | #4 (6 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.0 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Rodez shown at home, Pau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rodez — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Pau — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rodez (home) | Pau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Ibrahima Balde (12) | Giovani Versini (6) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.95 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Rodez or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Pau or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Rodez clean sheet | 30% |
| Pau clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rodez is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Rodez are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rodez vs Pau — FAQ
Who will win Rodez vs Pau?
Our statistical model makes Rodez the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Rodez 52%, draw 24%, Pau 24%.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Pau?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rodez vs Pau?
Expected goals are 1.95 for Rodez and 1.22 for Pau — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rodez vs Pau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Rodez or draw is 76%.