Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys
Model pick: Rosario Central (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rosario Central | Newell's Old Boys |
|---|
| League position | #4 (28 pts) | #14 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Rosario Central shown at home, Newell's Old Boys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rosario Central — last 5
DWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Newell's Old Boys — last 5
LDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rosario Central (home) | Newell's Old Boys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-2 in 8 (1.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.1 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 37% |
| Top scorer | – | Ignacio Ramirez (4) |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Rosario Central or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Newell's Old Boys or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Rosario Central clean sheet | 48% |
| Newell's Old Boys clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rosario Central is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Rosario Central are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys — FAQ
Who will win Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys?
Our statistical model makes Rosario Central the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Rosario Central 52%, draw 30%, Newell's Old Boys 18%.
Will both teams score in Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Rosario Central and 0.74 for Newell's Old Boys — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Rosario Central or draw is 79%.