Rosenborg vs HamKam Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Rosenborg vs HamKam
Model pick: Rosenborg (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.99 – 0.99
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rosenborg | HamKam |
|---|
| League position | #8 (24 pts) | #10 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Rosenborg shown at home, HamKam shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rosenborg — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
HamKam — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rosenborg (home) | HamKam (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (2.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-3-5 in 9 (1.1 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 55% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.99 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Rosenborg or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — HamKam or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Rosenborg clean sheet | 37% |
| HamKam clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rosenborg is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Rosenborg are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Rosenborg vs HamKam — FAQ
Who will win Rosenborg vs HamKam?
Our statistical model makes Rosenborg the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Rosenborg 61%, draw 21%, HamKam 17%.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs HamKam?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rosenborg vs HamKam?
Expected goals are 1.99 for Rosenborg and 0.99 for HamKam — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rosenborg vs HamKam?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (10%). Double chance for Rosenborg or draw is 82%.