Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse
Model pick: Rot-Weiss Essen (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.89 – 1.37
Total goals: 4.3
Over 2.5: 69%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Havelse |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.8 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Rot-Weiss Essen shown at home, Havelse shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rot-Weiss Essen — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Havelse — last 5
WDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rot-Weiss Essen (home) | Havelse (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% |
| Top scorer | – | Nassim Boujellab (5) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.89 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Rot-Weiss Essen or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Havelse or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Rot-Weiss Essen clean sheet | 25% |
| Havelse clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rot-Weiss Essen is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Rot-Weiss Essen are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.3, this shapes as an open game (69% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse — FAQ
Who will win Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse?
Our statistical model makes Rot-Weiss Essen the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen 70%, draw 16%, Havelse 14%.
Will both teams score in Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse?
Expected goals are 2.89 for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.37 for Havelse — about 4.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rot-Weiss Essen vs Havelse?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for Rot-Weiss Essen or draw is 84%.