Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Model pick: Rubio Nu (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.73
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rubio Nu | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|
| League position | #11 (23 pts) | #12 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Rubio Nu shown at home, Sportivo San Lorenzo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rubio Nu — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo San Lorenzo — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rubio Nu (home) | Sportivo San Lorenzo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Estiven Perez (5) | – |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Rubio Nu or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Sportivo San Lorenzo or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Rubio Nu clean sheet | 48% |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rubio Nu is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Rubio Nu are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo — FAQ
Who will win Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Our statistical model makes Rubio Nu the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Rubio Nu 41%, draw 33%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 26%.
Will both teams score in Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Rubio Nu and 0.73 for Sportivo San Lorenzo — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rubio Nu vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Rubio Nu or draw is 75%.