Rudeš vs Hajduk Split Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Rudeš vs Hajduk Split
Model pick: Hajduk Split (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.73 – 2.44
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rudeš | Hajduk Split |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #4 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 3.5 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
*Rudeš shown at home, Hajduk Split shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rudeš — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Hajduk Split — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rudeš (home) | Hajduk Split (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 3.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% |
| Top scorer | – | Marko Livaja (8) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.73 vs 2.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Rudeš or draw (1X) | 25% |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Rudeš clean sheet | 9% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 48% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Hajduk Split edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rudeš vs Hajduk Split — FAQ
Who will win Rudeš vs Hajduk Split?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Rudeš 12%, draw 18%, Hajduk Split 70%.
Will both teams score in Rudeš vs Hajduk Split?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rudeš vs Hajduk Split?
Expected goals are 0.73 for Rudeš and 2.44 for Hajduk Split — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rudeš vs Hajduk Split?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Rudeš or draw is 25%.