Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model pick: Lokomotiva Zagreb (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.99
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rudeš | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 6.0 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 3.6 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Rudeš shown at home, Lokomotiva Zagreb shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rudeš — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiva Zagreb — last 5
DWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rudeš (home) | Lokomotiva Zagreb (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 6.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% |
| Top scorer | – | Marko Pajac (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.92 vs 1.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Rudeš or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Rudeš clean sheet | 14% |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lokomotiva Zagreb is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Lokomotiva Zagreb edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — FAQ
Who will win Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Our statistical model makes Lokomotiva Zagreb the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Rudeš 19%, draw 23%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 58%.
Will both teams score in Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Expected goals are 0.92 for Rudeš and 1.99 for Lokomotiva Zagreb — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rudeš vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (11%). Double chance for Rudeš or draw is 38%.