Rustavi vs Gagra Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Rustavi vs Gagra
Model pick: Rustavi (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rustavi | Gagra |
|---|
| League position | #1 (38 pts) | #8 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.7 | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 80% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Rustavi shown at home, Gagra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rustavi — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Gagra — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rustavi (home) | Gagra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-0-2 in 10 (1.5 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-4-3 in 10 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 51% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Rustavi or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Gagra or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Rustavi clean sheet | 52% |
| Gagra clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rustavi is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Rustavi are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rustavi vs Gagra — FAQ
Who will win Rustavi vs Gagra?
Our statistical model makes Rustavi the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Rustavi 60%, draw 24%, Gagra 15%.
Will both teams score in Rustavi vs Gagra?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Rustavi vs Gagra?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Rustavi and 0.65 for Gagra — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rustavi vs Gagra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Rustavi or draw is 87%.