Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Model pick: Torpedo Kutaisi (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.55
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rustavi | Torpedo Kutaisi |
|---|
| League position | #2 (32 pts) | #4 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Rustavi shown at home, Torpedo Kutaisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rustavi — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Torpedo Kutaisi — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rustavi (home) | Torpedo Kutaisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-0-2 in 9 (1.6 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.92 vs 1.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Rustavi or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Torpedo Kutaisi or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Rustavi clean sheet | 21% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Kutaisi is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Torpedo Kutaisi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi — FAQ
Who will win Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Rustavi 24%, draw 27%, Torpedo Kutaisi 49%.
Will both teams score in Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
Expected goals are 0.92 for Rustavi and 1.55 for Torpedo Kutaisi — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rustavi vs Torpedo Kutaisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Rustavi or draw is 48%.