Sūduva vs Panevėžys Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Sūduva vs Panevėžys
Model pick: Sūduva (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sūduva | Panevėžys |
|---|
| League position | #1 (39 pts) | #7 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Sūduva shown at home, Panevėžys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sūduva — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 49% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Panevėžys — last 5
DLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sūduva (home) | Panevėžys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-5-0 in 11 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 3-0-9 in 12 (0.8 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 49% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 54% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sūduva or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Panevėžys or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Sūduva clean sheet | 34% |
| Panevėžys clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sūduva is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Sūduva are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sūduva vs Panevėžys — FAQ
Who will win Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
Our statistical model makes Sūduva the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Sūduva 38%, draw 29%, Panevėžys 33%.
Will both teams score in Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Sūduva and 1.07 for Panevėžys — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sūduva vs Panevėžys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sūduva or draw is 67%.