São Paulo vs Coritiba Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
São Paulo vs Coritiba
Model pick: São Paulo (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.85 – 0.76
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| São Paulo | Coritiba |
|---|
| League position | #12 (26 pts) | #10 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*São Paulo shown at home, Coritiba shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
São Paulo — last 5
WLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Coritiba — last 5
WLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | São Paulo (home) | Coritiba (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.7 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.85 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — São Paulo or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Coritiba or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 47% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
São Paulo is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. São Paulo are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ São Paulo vs Coritiba — FAQ
Who will win São Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model makes São Paulo the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: São Paulo 57%, draw 25%, Coritiba 18%.
Will both teams score in São Paulo vs Coritiba?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in São Paulo vs Coritiba?
Expected goals are 1.85 for São Paulo and 0.76 for Coritiba — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in São Paulo vs Coritiba?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for São Paulo or draw is 85%.