Sabadell vs Almería Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Sabadell vs Almería
Model pick: Draw (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.75 – 0.79
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sabadell | Almería |
|---|
| League position | #14 (2 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
*Sabadell shown at home, Almería shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sabadell — last 5
DDWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Almería — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sabadell (home) | Almería (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 48% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.28
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.75 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Sabadell or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Almería or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Sabadell clean sheet | 45% |
| Almería clean sheet | 47% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sabadell vs Almería — FAQ
Who will win Sabadell vs Almería?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Sabadell 31%, draw 36%, Almería 33%.
Will both teams score in Sabadell vs Almería?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sabadell vs Almería?
Expected goals are 0.75 for Sabadell and 0.79 for Almería — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sabadell vs Almería?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (21%). Double chance for Sabadell or draw is 67%.