Saburtalo vs Dila Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Saburtalo vs Dila
Model pick: Saburtalo (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saburtalo | Dila |
|---|
| League position | #1 (34 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
*Saburtalo shown at home, Dila shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saburtalo — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Dila — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saburtalo (home) | Dila (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 4-0-5 in 9 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Dila or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 33% |
| Dila clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saburtalo is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Saburtalo are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saburtalo vs Dila — FAQ
Who will win Saburtalo vs Dila?
Our statistical model makes Saburtalo the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Saburtalo 40%, draw 28%, Dila 32%.
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Dila?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Saburtalo vs Dila?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Saburtalo and 1.12 for Dila — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saburtalo vs Dila?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Saburtalo or draw is 68%.