Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Model pick: Saburtalo (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saburtalo | Dinamo Tbilisi |
|---|
| League position | #3 (34 pts) | #2 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Saburtalo shown at home, Dinamo Tbilisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saburtalo — last 5
WDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Tbilisi — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saburtalo (home) | Dinamo Tbilisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 32% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saburtalo is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Saburtalo are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi — FAQ
Who will win Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our statistical model makes Saburtalo the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Saburtalo 42%, draw 27%, Dinamo Tbilisi 31%.
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Saburtalo and 1.15 for Dinamo Tbilisi — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saburtalo vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Saburtalo or draw is 70%.