Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction & Preview
UEFA Europa League (Europe) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok
Model pick: Jagiellonia Białystok (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.13 – 2.77
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saburtalo | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|
| League position | #3 (34 pts) | #17 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Saburtalo shown at home, Jagiellonia Białystok shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saburtalo — last 5
DDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Jagiellonia Białystok — last 5
WWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saburtalo (home) | Jagiellonia Białystok (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-3-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Jesus Imaz (5) |
UEFA Europa League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 41%
Use these UEFA Europa League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.13 vs 2.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (21%) |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (1X) | 9% |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 6% |
| Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet | 88% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia Białystok is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Despite playing away, Jagiellonia Białystok edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok — FAQ
Who will win Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia Białystok the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Saburtalo 16%, draw 20%, Jagiellonia Białystok 65%.
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Expected goals are 0.13 for Saburtalo and 2.77 for Jagiellonia Białystok — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saburtalo vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (21%). Double chance for Saburtalo or draw is 9%.