Saburtalo vs Samgurali Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Saburtalo vs Samgurali
Model pick: Saburtalo (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 1.1
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saburtalo | Samgurali |
|---|
| League position | #4 (34 pts) | #5 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Saburtalo shown at home, Samgurali shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saburtalo — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Samgurali — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saburtalo (home) | Samgurali (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 4-2-6 in 12 (1.4 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 33% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saburtalo is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Saburtalo are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saburtalo vs Samgurali — FAQ
Who will win Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Our statistical model makes Saburtalo the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Saburtalo 54%, draw 24%, Samgurali 23%.
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Saburtalo and 1.1 for Samgurali — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saburtalo vs Samgurali?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Saburtalo or draw is 79%.