Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 03:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
Model pick: Sacramento Republic (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.09 – 0.51
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising |
|---|
| League position | #5 (30 pts) | #11 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Sacramento Republic shown at home, Phoenix Rising shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sacramento Republic — last 5
WWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Phoenix Rising — last 5
LWDDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sacramento Republic (home) | Phoenix Rising (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (1.9 / 0.8 goals per game) | 2-3-5 in 10 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 42%
BTTS: 47%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.09 vs 0.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Sacramento Republic or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Phoenix Rising or draw (X2) | 26% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Sacramento Republic clean sheet | 60% |
| Phoenix Rising clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sacramento Republic is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Sacramento Republic are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising — FAQ
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our statistical model makes Sacramento Republic the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Sacramento Republic 69%, draw 20%, Phoenix Rising 10%.
Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Expected goals are 2.09 for Sacramento Republic and 0.51 for Phoenix Rising — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for Sacramento Republic or draw is 92%.