Safa Baku vs Imisli FK Prediction & Preview
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMYER LIQASI (AZERBAIJAN)
Safa Baku vs Imisli FK
Model pick: Draw (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.63 – 0.52
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Safa Baku | Imisli FK |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #8 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Safa Baku shown at home, Imisli FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Safa Baku — last 5
LW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Imisli FK — last 5
DLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 53% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Safa Baku (home) | Imisli FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 53% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 37% |
Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.5
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premyer Liqasi (Azerbaijan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.63 vs 0.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Safa Baku or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Imisli FK or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 57% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Safa Baku clean sheet | 59% |
| Imisli FK clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Safa Baku vs Imisli FK — FAQ
Who will win Safa Baku vs Imisli FK?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Safa Baku 32%, draw 42%, Imisli FK 26%.
Will both teams score in Safa Baku vs Imisli FK?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Safa Baku vs Imisli FK?
Expected goals are 0.63 for Safa Baku and 0.52 for Imisli FK — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Safa Baku vs Imisli FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for Safa Baku or draw is 75%.