Saint-Etienne vs Clermont Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Saint-Etienne vs Clermont
Model pick: Saint-Etienne (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saint-Etienne | Clermont |
|---|
| League position | #1 (3 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Saint-Etienne shown at home, Clermont shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saint-Etienne — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Clermont — last 5
WDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saint-Etienne (home) | Clermont (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Zuriko Davitashvili (14) | – |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Saint-Etienne or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Clermont or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Saint-Etienne clean sheet | 41% |
| Clermont clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saint-Etienne is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Saint-Etienne are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saint-Etienne vs Clermont — FAQ
Who will win Saint-Etienne vs Clermont?
Our statistical model makes Saint-Etienne the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Saint-Etienne 57%, draw 24%, Clermont 19%.
Will both teams score in Saint-Etienne vs Clermont?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Saint-Etienne vs Clermont?
Expected goals are 1.75 for Saint-Etienne and 0.88 for Clermont — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saint-Etienne vs Clermont?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Saint-Etienne or draw is 81%.