Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38 Prediction & Preview
Ligue 2 (France) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 2 (FRANCE)
Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38
Model pick: Saint-Etienne (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Saint-Etienne | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #15 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Saint-Etienne shown at home, Grenoble Foot 38 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Saint-Etienne — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Grenoble Foot 38 — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Saint-Etienne (home) | Grenoble Foot 38 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Zuriko Davitashvili (14) | Yadaly Diaby (8) |
Ligue 2 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.43
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligue 2 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Saint-Etienne or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Grenoble Foot 38 or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Saint-Etienne clean sheet | 44% |
| Grenoble Foot 38 clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Saint-Etienne is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Saint-Etienne are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38 — FAQ
Who will win Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38?
Our statistical model makes Saint-Etienne the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Saint-Etienne 63%, draw 22%, Grenoble Foot 38 15%.
Will both teams score in Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Saint-Etienne and 0.83 for Grenoble Foot 38 — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Saint-Etienne vs Grenoble Foot 38?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Saint-Etienne or draw is 82%.