Salford City vs Port Vale Prediction & Preview
League Two (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE TWO (ENGLAND)
Salford City vs Port Vale
Model pick: Salford City (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Salford City | Port Vale |
|---|
| League position | #23 (0 pts) | #20 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*Salford City shown at home, Port Vale shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Salford City — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Port Vale — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Salford City (home) | Port Vale (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Daniel Udoh (10) | – |
League Two (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these League Two (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Salford City or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Port Vale or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Salford City clean sheet | 33% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Salford City is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Salford City are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Salford City vs Port Vale — FAQ
Who will win Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model makes Salford City the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Salford City 45%, draw 28%, Port Vale 27%.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Salford City vs Port Vale?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Salford City and 1.12 for Port Vale — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Salford City or draw is 65%.