Samgurali vs Dila Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Samgurali vs Dila
Model pick: Dila (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.58
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Samgurali | Dila |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #7 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Samgurali shown at home, Dila shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Samgurali — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Dila — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Samgurali (home) | Dila (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.4 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-0-6 in 10 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Dila or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 21% |
| Dila clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dila is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Dila edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Samgurali vs Dila — FAQ
Who will win Samgurali vs Dila?
Our statistical model makes Dila the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Samgurali 29%, draw 26%, Dila 44%.
Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Dila?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Samgurali vs Dila?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Samgurali and 1.58 for Dila — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Samgurali vs Dila?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Samgurali or draw is 54%.