Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi
Model pick: Samgurali (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.43
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Samgurali | Dinamo Batumi |
|---|
| League position | #5 (28 pts) | #4 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Samgurali shown at home, Dinamo Batumi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Samgurali — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Batumi — last 5
LLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Samgurali (home) | Dinamo Batumi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Batumi or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 24% |
| Dinamo Batumi clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Samgurali is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Samgurali are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi — FAQ
Who will win Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?
Our statistical model makes Samgurali the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Samgurali 39%, draw 26%, Dinamo Batumi 35%.
Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Samgurali and 1.43 for Dinamo Batumi — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Samgurali vs Dinamo Batumi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Samgurali or draw is 65%.