Samgurali vs Rustavi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Samgurali vs Rustavi
Model pick: Rustavi (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.7
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Samgurali | Rustavi |
|---|
| League position | #6 (31 pts) | #1 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
*Samgurali shown at home, Rustavi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Samgurali — last 5
DWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Rustavi — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Samgurali (home) | Rustavi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.4 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-5-3 in 11 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Rustavi or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 18% |
| Rustavi clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rustavi is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Rustavi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Samgurali vs Rustavi — FAQ
Who will win Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Our statistical model makes Rustavi the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Samgurali 20%, draw 26%, Rustavi 55%.
Will both teams score in Samgurali vs Rustavi?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Samgurali vs Rustavi?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Samgurali and 1.7 for Rustavi — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Samgurali vs Rustavi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Samgurali or draw is 41%.