Samsunspor vs Göztepe Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Samsunspor vs Göztepe
Model pick: Samsunspor (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Samsunspor | Göztepe |
|---|
| League position | #12 (10 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.7 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Samsunspor shown at home, Göztepe shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Samsunspor — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Göztepe — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Samsunspor (home) | Göztepe (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (2.3 / 0.7 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Samsunspor or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Göztepe or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Samsunspor clean sheet | 35% |
| Göztepe clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Samsunspor is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Samsunspor are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Samsunspor vs Göztepe — FAQ
Who will win Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model makes Samsunspor the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Samsunspor 43%, draw 28%, Göztepe 29%.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Samsunspor and 1.06 for Göztepe — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Samsunspor or draw is 71%.