San Antonio vs El Paso Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
San Antonio vs El Paso
Model pick: San Antonio (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.56 – 0.54
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Antonio | El Paso |
|---|
| League position | #2 (32 pts) | #6 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
*San Antonio shown at home, El Paso shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Antonio — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
El Paso — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Antonio (home) | El Paso (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (1.6 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-2-4 in 10 (1.5 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.56 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — San Antonio or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — El Paso or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 56% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| San Antonio clean sheet | 58% |
| El Paso clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Antonio is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. San Antonio are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Antonio vs El Paso — FAQ
Who will win San Antonio vs El Paso?
Our statistical model makes San Antonio the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: San Antonio 37%, draw 33%, El Paso 30%.
Will both teams score in San Antonio vs El Paso?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Antonio vs El Paso?
Expected goals are 0.56 for San Antonio and 0.54 for El Paso — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Antonio vs El Paso?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (33%). Double chance for San Antonio or draw is 73%.