San Antonio vs FC Tulsa Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
San Antonio vs FC Tulsa
Model pick: FC Tulsa (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.29 – 1.18
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 31%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Antonio | FC Tulsa |
|---|
| League position | #5 (35 pts) | #3 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*San Antonio shown at home, FC Tulsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Antonio — last 5
DWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
FC Tulsa — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Antonio (home) | FC Tulsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.3 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.29 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (27%) |
| Double chance — San Antonio or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — FC Tulsa or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| San Antonio clean sheet | 31% |
| FC Tulsa clean sheet | 75% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Tulsa is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, FC Tulsa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (69% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Antonio vs FC Tulsa — FAQ
Who will win San Antonio vs FC Tulsa?
Our statistical model makes FC Tulsa the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: San Antonio 31%, draw 30%, FC Tulsa 39%.
Will both teams score in San Antonio vs FC Tulsa?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Antonio vs FC Tulsa?
Expected goals are 0.29 for San Antonio and 1.18 for FC Tulsa — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Antonio vs FC Tulsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (27%). Double chance for San Antonio or draw is 41%.