San Carlos vs Herediano Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
San Carlos vs Herediano
Model pick: Herediano (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Carlos | Herediano |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #3 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 3.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.0 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*San Carlos shown at home, Herediano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Carlos — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Herediano — last 5
DDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Carlos (home) | Herediano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 39% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — San Carlos or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Herediano or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| San Carlos clean sheet | 26% |
| Herediano clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Herediano is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Herediano edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Carlos vs Herediano — FAQ
Who will win San Carlos vs Herediano?
Our statistical model makes Herediano the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: San Carlos 27%, draw 30%, Herediano 44%.
Will both teams score in San Carlos vs Herediano?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Carlos vs Herediano?
Expected goals are 1.02 for San Carlos and 1.33 for Herediano — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Carlos vs Herediano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for San Carlos or draw is 56%.