San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia
Model pick: San Carlos (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Carlos | Municipal Liberia |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*San Carlos shown at home, Municipal Liberia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Carlos — last 5
LWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Municipal Liberia — last 5
WWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Carlos (home) | Municipal Liberia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 57% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — San Carlos or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Municipal Liberia or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| San Carlos clean sheet | 31% |
| Municipal Liberia clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Carlos is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. San Carlos are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia — FAQ
Who will win San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?
Our statistical model makes San Carlos the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: San Carlos 40%, draw 28%, Municipal Liberia 32%.
Will both teams score in San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?
Expected goals are 1.37 for San Carlos and 1.16 for Municipal Liberia — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for San Carlos or draw is 68%.