San Carlos vs Sporting San José Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
San Carlos vs Sporting San José
Model pick: San Carlos (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Carlos | Sporting San José |
|---|
| League position | #7 (6 pts) | #3 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*San Carlos shown at home, Sporting San José shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Carlos — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting San José — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Carlos (home) | Sporting San José (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — San Carlos or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Sporting San José or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| San Carlos clean sheet | 36% |
| Sporting San José clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Carlos is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. San Carlos are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Carlos vs Sporting San José — FAQ
Who will win San Carlos vs Sporting San José?
Our statistical model makes San Carlos the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: San Carlos 41%, draw 29%, Sporting San José 30%.
Will both teams score in San Carlos vs Sporting San José?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Carlos vs Sporting San José?
Expected goals are 1.31 for San Carlos and 1.03 for Sporting San José — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Carlos vs Sporting San José?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for San Carlos or draw is 71%.